What is Deal Win Probability?
Also known as: Stage probability, close probability, deal probability
Deal Win Probability is the likelihood a given deal closes won, usually assigned by its pipeline stage. It is the multiplier that turns raw pipeline into weighted pipeline and forecasts.
What is Deal Win Probability?
Each stage is mapped to a probability (for example Qualified 20%, Demo 40%, Contract Sent 80%). More advanced setups use historical conversion or predictive scoring instead of fixed stage values.
How it is set
The simplest approach uses each stage’s historical win rate as its probability. Multiplying a deal amount by this probability gives its weighted (expected) value. Recalibrate stage probabilities from actual conversion data, not gut feel.
Stage probability vs predictive scoring
Fixed stage probabilities are transparent and easy; predictive (AI) scores use deal attributes and engagement to refine the odds per deal. Stage-based is the standard; predictive helps when stages alone are weak predictors.
Why it matters
Every weighted-pipeline and forecast number depends on these probabilities. If they are stale or optimistic, the forecast inherits the error — calibrating them against real close rates is one of the highest-leverage RevOps tasks.