What is Weighted Pipeline?
Also known as: Probability-weighted pipeline, expected pipeline value
Weighted Pipeline discounts every open deal by its probability of closing, so a $100k deal at 40% counts as $40k. It turns a raw pipeline total into a more realistic expected-value number.
What is Weighted Pipeline?
Each deal stage carries a win probability (often set per stage in your CRM). Multiplying each deal amount by its stage probability and summing gives weighted pipeline — what you would expect to collect if every deal performed at its average odds.
How to calculate Weighted Pipeline
Weighted Pipeline = sum of (deal amount × stage win probability) across all open deals.
A $50k deal at "Qualified" (20%) contributes $10k; the same deal at "Contract Sent" (80%) contributes $40k.
Weighted vs Open Pipeline
Open pipeline treats every deal as worth its full amount; weighted pipeline is always smaller and shifts as deals change stage. Weighted is better for forecasting; open is better for measuring total activity.
Why it matters
Weighted pipeline is the bridge between a bloated open-pipeline number and a credible forecast. It self-corrects: as deals slip or advance, the expected value updates without anyone re-guessing.